FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon State vs Boise State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 3.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6094 · 80% margin interval -13.0 to 20.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.0660640780352561
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.0248394385160507
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.054644972126012256
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.031337396320836944
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.006976699844348995
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01931566191535722
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0050679899154917035
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0043613886359856555
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007233805332574084
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.13019886269101746
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	-0.03003773535053106
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.0736127379202364
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.01627115614951067
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.0006618689777423137
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.10060621001999692

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.