FROZEN PREDICTION

UNLV vs New Mexico

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 7.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7124 · 80% margin interval -9.4 to 23.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.25565929351724725
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.11104849618932072
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.05870985639437952
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.08243506683250533
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.22935216347873083
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.0032298168944755803
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0009020229653308827
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.036279478598304216
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.026400402817060596
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.04309069175510664
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.058634509076826616
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.013048690569170476
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.015550531767277519
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.03931735592688326
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.10792705609079135
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.07566026167372006

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.