FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado State vs Washington State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington State by 1.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5535 · 80% margin interval -14.9 to 18.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.01540435769989644
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.034040514784839125
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.17374924176985254
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.17453440803523002
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.007343894572998945
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.021525884428534932
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0009509513413011638
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.025610177913094327
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0017977280430620975
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.0009527270781701791
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.06435833339156899
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.00038610341030272805
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.044880105600730566
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.039929613087610574
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.09979601773481431

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.