FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon vs Michigan State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 7.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.2713 · 80% margin interval -24.6 to 8.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.19680627517590796
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.08174099950875806
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.030791587747304592
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.07359205973003055
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.22180579488943397
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.009347061555195917
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.03998601630941036
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.04335726093172392
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.036862543414097615
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.04169719597243171
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.19922019668380356
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.1661621394218959
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.07669327631799372
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.07180955186084825
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05561054909396706
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.16118049575402157

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.