FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado vs Cincinnati

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Cincinnati by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6731 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.07825751827627861
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.028188483170941192
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.015811916315010395
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.12615566454267613
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.025556753114036313
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.017275858458386882
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0011313417293266409
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0042056247561290255
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.021023956377284107
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.12217825865787571
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.08301355197652141
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04245229493045527
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.14845550257344617
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04615135997996673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.23339744021571557

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.