FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma by 4.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6399 · 80% margin interval -12.0 to 21.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.01643824167607874
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.005709810870589773
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.014626066211901897
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.02853538287873343
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.025097054745537938
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.03499653133821634
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.0047513949250589625
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0080251629136538
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.0004916774675744057
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.009840382720363243
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.1599134915831375
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	0.012780843745068972
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.12286577490299391
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.027197779231971947
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.07081587136333986
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.06047611480253319

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.