FROZEN PREDICTION

Indiana vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away
Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away
Close-game gritModerately leans away
Defensive toughnessModerately leans away
Scoring punchModerately leans away
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsStrongly leans away
Recent formModerately leans away
Wins away from homeModerately leans away
Tough schedulesModerately leans away
Statement winsModerately leans away
WinningStrongly leans away
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.2644 · 80% margin interval -24.8 to 8.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.145588985211626720.14023457419683835-0.237288438480757
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.054595869454360030.05258796532381438-0.07962096370991736
Close-game gritMeasuredMeasured0.0270270.036397246302906680.03505864354920959-0.06101000044093643
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.090993115757266710.08764660887302397-0.14389642477266126
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.090993115757266710.08764660887302397-0.09728130507575079
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0050675675675675680.010135135135135136-0.015053487157003876
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0067567567567567570.013513513513513514-0.016175121011375637
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.0084459459459459460.0168918918918918930.0028013455153546203
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0067567567567567570.0135135135135135140.01643466414351277
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.0084459459459459460.0168918918918918930.0054920297507632075
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.109191738908720050.10517593064762876-0.25296337099660676
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.072794492605813360.07011728709841918-0.09089024194602044
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.054595869454360030.05258796532381438-0.10484462337573393
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.109191738908720050.10517593064762876-0.10029632843185476
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.054595869454360030.05258796532381438-0.09207382090458618
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.145588985211626720.14023457419683835-0.2600629381318473

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.