FROZEN PREDICTION

Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 7.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7191 · 80% margin interval -9.1 to 24.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.10512982379440498
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.02762544329894169
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.05870241256251364
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.04517618340939453
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.12052581662794284
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.00483010739939076
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.0033771979535502407
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.013574861999389766
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.023259164573285224
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.02265938638935199
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.0937766208901188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.011258404537376338
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.001640939493786589
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.177797611260118
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.00945918911400033
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.16118049575402157

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.