FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia State vs Marshall

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3273 · 80% margin interval -22.5 to 10.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	-0.3252436254247344
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.08708998837311394
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.022761288270848497
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	-0.15257441828734844
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08495627980922099	-0.20610248341214127
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.011421252778657305
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.024146246670837396
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.006209644360528413
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.020886915042748123
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.00016129301675697066
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	-0.02291968274669129
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.0679650238473768	-0.12760611000330233
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.023721441570306864
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10194753577106519	0.05032994465101473
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050973767885532595	-0.18869052911620857
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.1359300476947536	-0.17779470347398477

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.