FROZEN PREDICTION

North Carolina vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Carolina by 0.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4902 · 80% margin interval -17.0 to 16.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.04807802818311036
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.08222057672716726
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.030799031579170473
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.0030425619609844995
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.004003810038314182
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.04075184971639345
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.02521900290607776
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.02641463817422422
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.005787649382699841
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01696380124327562
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.10293737469990774
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.03816130778307556
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.16655202879966688
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.1932334925461021
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.070513236812218
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.04103845843413775

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.