FROZEN PREDICTION

Iowa vs Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Iowa by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3803 · 80% margin interval -20.6 to 12.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10771623609496472
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.025120711440482293
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.15836528119861498
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.002268376612435577
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.018323016959632354
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.005254506859712904
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0015226110216635166
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0068016894204061965
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.006039104661149655
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.17426511958026258
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.0539431162418322
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07669676733775398
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.011318080049798195
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03998621296310917
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.