FROZEN PREDICTION

Memphis vs Navy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 0.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4950 · 80% margin interval -16.8 to 16.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	-0.01420539513879884
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.039477032543135324
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03639724630290668	-0.06886421784694606
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	0.05009459811433752
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	-0.06977922693195902
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	-0.009458257698024039
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	0.0024511288392954707
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.04474442897230902
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.012568102612378035
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.0007218014605366853
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	-0.005212014849888223
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07279449260581336	-0.08686604283160014
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	-0.018481477624586736
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.13779771951291278
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	-0.08959070191573422
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	-0.18986749811111722

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.