FROZEN PREDICTION

Wofford vs Ole Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ole Miss by 18.0

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.9168 · 80% margin interval 1.3 to 34.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.2598218345697627
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.046627568320918494
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.08423122550686288
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.0997039728719571
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.171537194005131
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.04054054054054054	0.07699960819134162
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.11320016773516423
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.13082657410167817
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.08746267569928816
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.13085736074997317
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.25158177124115805
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.05405405405405406	0.10469181959614243
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.14300556513432489
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.1478259551620905
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.07013504175224301
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.2938408422010494

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.