FROZEN PREDICTION

Delaware vs New Mexico State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico State by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentNeutral effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5948 · 80% margin interval -13.5 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.0020922930021438635
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.04592215767100197
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.006308539095310359
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.00814362622420707
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.002460204681954646
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.004283547607224811
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00034790784695236734
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.03141238243775381
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.01365506037784682
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	0.057097544794239966
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038610341030272805
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.01803810851004589
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.039929613087610574
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.0013134593592653843

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.