FROZEN PREDICTION

Samford vs Auburn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Auburn by 15.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.8825 · 80% margin interval -1.2 to 32.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.2194620154257242
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.10300453466280088
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.05516660675244244
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.1879934707381122
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.07630758176080223
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.04054054054054054	0.0653778950295708
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.09721070324632325
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.13889405328606794
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.059503059265023
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.14575579536368674
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.12060060953571947
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.05405405405405406	0.05626724760983827
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.13489944992657804
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.1866377085631478
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.023983681772276284
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.17714212209319158

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.