FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado State vs Fresno State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Fresno State by 4.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6359 · 80% margin interval -12.1 to 21.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.04770383449392082
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.0005462328641960695
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.15333364241249797
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.13748976281868136
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008794313751166224
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.014500493863110996
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0010311651758155111
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0006749768127120655
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00039486938770416473
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.0165788901200188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.16864835812577791
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.01655107670109163
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.20476303514653782
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.08002902580171692
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.2035324135474247

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.