FROZEN PREDICTION

San Diego State vs Boise State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 10.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.971155-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7839 · 80% margin interval -6.5 to 26.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.1986860381719504
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.11722998672225071
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.04532761904044775
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.05903470049099524
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.1227147797854969
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.012741657084153167
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.00017501080303229145
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.006350685350666641
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.011747192605854216
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0020664410768671667
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.10101482190524391
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.19599332234532368
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.09496311776202386
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.1500762119931895
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.11995863888932748
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.303328431282239

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.