FROZEN PREDICTION

App State vs South Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 3.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5989 · 80% margin interval -13.4 to 19.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.060783308591593574
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.058614993361125356
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.007554603173407962
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1291864506579699
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.11060932755498654
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.010392528807615122
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0027408557403923277
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0018964583046941399
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.021131966367216197
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.008381828153055831
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.014977191807673887
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.025173454246188363
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.02477837857808174
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.073455318159193
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.