FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs Texas A&M

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3486 · 80% margin interval -21.7 to 11.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	-0.12444627606950574
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	-0.10638296505252262
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	-0.014626066211901897
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	-0.03273898669908794
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	-0.057427245365893054
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.01891202524311622
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0016607900305664405
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.019261896144082843
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.007423170121194457
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.016482325518619688
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	-0.31486297952403086
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.06744008159102499	-0.08368825272501434
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	-0.11548838432878708
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	-0.05481367369379403
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.024664511383373125
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	-0.17717483491039102

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.