FROZEN PREDICTION

Purdue vs Indiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 12.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.8325 · 80% margin interval -4.1 to 29.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.2233765274505783
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.15786056134181953
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	0.04532389712451481
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.19858871231721115
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.03756884169814654
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.0003289785381410011
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.02774182322665535
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	0.006515436919706368
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.014643379525161516
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.0034218039832790703
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.22658532233498752
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	0.031153961947792692
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.10449291627158672
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	-0.050133392591250936
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.09207382090458618
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.3500372416446568

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.