FROZEN PREDICTION

Virginia vs Virginia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia Tech by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5840 · 80% margin interval -13.9 to 19.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.007333208720225241
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10885641624208994
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.08770356082014254
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09694603049859178
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.007482510583064296
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01541480727515356
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01326976375495072
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.014122591773667826
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0057338062847138525
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.04109983805598309
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.012586727123094181
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08015867414431128
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.02493844044704078
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03998621296310917
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.