FROZEN PREDICTION

Boston College vs Miami

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami by 13.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchStrongly leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.8485 · 80% margin interval -3.3 to 30.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.3144496602467243
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.08587875802258202
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	-0.014626066211901897
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.03158608558437345
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.26075854972632584
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.008702515069003743
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.04990263227048368
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.04823011057548489
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.016588853204731142
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.042473690448977655
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.10676878474137855
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	0.13425895512366146
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.12864896669263998
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.1777963778023128
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.1853964870190658
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.35202948824643243

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.