FROZEN PREDICTION

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3064 · 80% margin interval -23.2 to 10.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.26312411308263706
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.13397712768257222
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1009639108973485
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.13144630881856764
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.007545851673756409
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0070461630347984985
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.027980164348193615
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.000051921293285543766
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.02285322350882098
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.16391929329199562
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.14205020610349148
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.09474169492912282
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.05184666887246431
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07997242592621832
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.