FROZEN PREDICTION

Marshall vs UL Monroe

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UL Monroe by 0.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5071 · 80% margin interval -16.4 to 16.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.00796064611652969
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0023214896728332574
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.06626445956778748
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.015928733349291763
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.0032438923085602867
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.00832464375449359
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.024253117287581186
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.00895349255163511
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.026961706357156712
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.026394876028304183
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.021734712021357044
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.023308969777824443
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.001640939493786589
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.07182716219641266
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.003294042097142763
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.19277620824041664

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.