FROZEN PREDICTION

Arizona State vs Arizona

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona by 8.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7343 · 80% margin interval -8.5 to 24.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	0.20960438384373647
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.09851785681249366
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	-0.04369068496632234
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	0.12829498295069455
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	0.009190008446422544
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.00992194082412086
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.00549591974831678
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.006778944810463857
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.032556225708674016
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.016093322401371853
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	0.08658405447418505
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.06744008159102499	0.12206790826249417
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.0012991447487377891
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	-0.020729259708336407
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.06500995877310274
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	0.1435595658189743

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.