FROZEN PREDICTION

UTEP vs Northern Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northern Illinois by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5783 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.009327530038245269
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.002867722537029327
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04350317129693898
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.0969232433716507
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.03626971975222458
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.026439517180440138
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.008876429082324205
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.004487832312055331
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.021831329007932773
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.021945972208052618
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.011860411017501071
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	0.006063656523166927
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.002027042904089317
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.048685546858706255
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.036276336563847364
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.011664568523682167

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.