FROZEN PREDICTION

Navy vs Charlotte

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Navy by 4.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3673 · 80% margin interval -21.1 to 12.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.22258205016427107
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.11104849618932072
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.023525433058699485
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.16287209417987772
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.10752164432290515
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.004086538073874614
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.025825474321378165
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.02139418643872316
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.02141910829892494
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01651223092938476
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.07915158581251028
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.11758227664641069
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.001640939493786589
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.029667859500892055
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.04944540207710949
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.1455912527402435

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.