FROZEN PREDICTION

Notre Dame vs Syracuse

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Notre Dame by 7.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.2823 · 80% margin interval -24.1 to 9.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.20962516772381293
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.06950325598492957
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.01443855254251854
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.08833138894727535
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.06076509204731714
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.0037468829498734212
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.03964203709436384
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.021516267539351673
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.010256030242533097
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.01879206336057525
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.23446044774565744
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	-0.14904506262113804
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.1157953556254051
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.11491160516628746
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.14343767666485316
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.3622761262375858

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.