FROZEN PREDICTION

Duke vs Wake Forest

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wake Forest by 4.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6306 · 80% margin interval -12.3 to 21.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.005318533894905657
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.03907385174393888
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.045331340956380695
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.005252490622841145
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.01570619422940495
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.002642305328635665
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.005627914743445965
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.00036437875900751857
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.004986018974050427
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.006057584448698883
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.05227642461335669
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.007348345929786573
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.10970252914449427
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.07683590984988797
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.02178948314771545
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.025449215420359633

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.