FROZEN PREDICTION

Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Kentucky by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6172 · 80% margin interval -12.8 to 20.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14705882352941177	0.14023457419683835	-0.054874083375655816
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05514705882352942	0.05258796532381438	-0.011332331827889446
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09191176470588236	0.08764660887302397	-0.11404866243050771
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09191176470588236	0.08764660887302397	0.018940783738640554
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	-0.01740445140718516
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.003746203726744578
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.023703231799919237
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.02949286940482695
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.019036365139900865
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.11029411764705883	0.10517593064762876	0.0013168267306516018
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07352941176470588	0.07011728709841918	0.03663165274816186
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05514705882352942	0.05258796532381438	0.0036301377622592196
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.11029411764705883	0.10517593064762876	0.03022404811282462
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05514705882352942	0.05258796532381438	0.02769903998778614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14705882352941177	0.14023457419683835	0.15458335005104795

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.