FROZEN PREDICTION

Nevada vs UNLV

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UNLV by 5.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6490 · 80% margin interval -11.7 to 21.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.033504940906397204
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.09091386535293416
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.05870985639437952
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.05027076467407434
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.04836096674787077
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.018691708405926252
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.025282988578750974
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.009648013693459457
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.008721202453333044
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.03735470927328802
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.09124399629260921
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.06304706540930749
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.001640939493786589
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.04033508251236109
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.015624336130857898
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.1577371785419955

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.