FROZEN PREDICTION

Sacramento State vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Hawai'i by 2.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.468646-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5671 · 80% margin interval -14.5 to 18.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.002272271388250202
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.07172158194556257
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.018979747496781163
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.001298363944244818
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.004700092526719326
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.008622014398145843
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.008803559077580129
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.011627220058685227
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.022201882490233915
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.0165788901200188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.049973502393747066
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.00038610341030272805
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.08326817437709017
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.03957037866099013
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.002221822575939447

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.