FROZEN PREDICTION

North Dakota State vs Air Force

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 0.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentNot used — data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T15:06:55.618300-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4926 · 80% margin interval -16.9 to 16.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.1192368839427663	-0.012507766147192317
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044713831478537365	0.012492198433156534
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07452305246422894	-0.005167212958730585
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07452305246422894	-0.04091228119248796
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.030405405405405407	0.01909262917215329
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	-0.10532800269301094
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	-0.014854932034551183
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.027792828823940723
Team talent	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08581081081081081	0.08942766295707473	-0.004780294443199065
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05720720720720721	0.05961844197138315	0.006145911379696903
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.081081	0.08108108108108109	0.08942766295707473	-0.2682829888712242
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044713831478537365	-0.0017386117530157896
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.1192368839427663	-0.0036837511304165377

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.