FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio vs Miami (OH)

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami (OH) by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.5560 · 80% margin interval -14.8 to 18.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.01037248096867549
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.02954490170532437
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.015580771794041857
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.013363532172945135
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.030059884465685097
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.000348834992217452
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.003293494504774194
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005606983328404766
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.025233748536774132
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.015404952374618433
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0706268481267768
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.08764910649897037
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.051068873969075834
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0611203929472772
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.040674104023858945
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10362958915474929

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.