FROZEN PREDICTION

Massachusetts vs Toledo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Toledo by 2.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.5874 · 80% margin interval -13.8 to 19.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.04064433892555398
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03798630219255991
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.09348463076425115
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1151685330636595
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.07747843725406804
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.015771013595515217
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.028548991534597525
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.020939440393513722
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.03315174576281951
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.016576944902341014
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0547047695841085
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.03834648409329954
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03514513502645782
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.008510853626035375
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04067410402385893
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.