FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana vs UL Monroe

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.3314 · 80% margin interval -22.3 to 11.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.21887344434862643
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.06521665863385454
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.0605209112386566
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.18313210841732405
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.05856402417243696
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.019230327195397016
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.018414687179573546
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.01886334922016408
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.026961706357156712
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.025786802402510557
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.0624791908265693
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.1368979839218065
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0015912853996758944
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.06741462420924935
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07805633866434819
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.3012794782880803

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.