FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida State vs Pittsburgh

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6742 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.030878313871477978
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.07833152539084139
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.046724846031932256
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.08942266986128695
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.031944816241036005
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.01578260816819705
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.004982038973421444
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.02015977387474211
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.0004169451649226043
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.02009058647466467
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.20623788252590908
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.07760992406677213
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.07206338446131151
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.08751521053307328
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.01673017076475895
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.13662955702584612

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.