FROZEN PREDICTION

Auburn vs Mississippi State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Mississippi State by 3.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6163 · 80% margin interval -12.8 to 20.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.0264344640880802
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0953618006346942
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.031738976433662906
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.06411912457462662
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.08553015455064003
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.01299719667656417
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.013212528940673783
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.023144200364760784
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.01731732612936701
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.03011181644663924
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.1424778597468606
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.08863578325931305
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.034196280523069625
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.10869070201528541
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.031111027329174253
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.042130138427276254

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.