FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 4.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6239 · 80% margin interval -12.6 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.07300235083585721
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.019066888230970816
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	-0.04854449131963642
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.004905495303725166
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.10778168301095792
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.010282949119842467
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.008473481134425302
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.017333288787840722
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.02100058831536408
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.016431989133413965
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.010478994324159219
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.12834223591241836
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.1065297246373122
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.00235521433982655
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.09633327371922507
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.032999967871096825

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.