FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida vs Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kentucky by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6193 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.03421792506068061
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.0011864671989173826
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	-0.0017672372371242001
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.05058067660660195
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	-0.051515649108967165
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.017302554869984797
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.0007583642449442152
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.004534835441329571
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.018849004281290542
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.0018549420678523297
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	-0.009008965994123902
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	0.1312485212106117
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	-0.003930028505797101
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.01640283440610399
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	-0.0239439332591
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.07062962128365255

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.