FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah vs Arizona

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 1.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.4605 · 80% margin interval -17.9 to 15.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.1359300476947536	-0.08952945049910505
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050973767885532595	-0.05157082693573458
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08495627980922099	-0.04320301648479124
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08495627980922099	-0.07603365066054732
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.01197204487163223
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.022539702132593195
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.009901295540823914
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.00825391081376316
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.010291391685552502
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10194753577106519	-0.076973421103807
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.0679650238473768	-0.0067907203965684865
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050973767885532595	-0.00382038017998456
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10194753577106519	-0.03177187814460705
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050973767885532595	-0.028505791545624548
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.1359300476947536	-0.09398704984302397

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.