FROZEN PREDICTION

Missouri vs Georgia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 5.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6657 · 80% margin interval -11.1 to 22.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.01120941287468577
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.037986302192559905
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.09348463076425115
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.006452943193405683
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.05144873972563914
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.018323016959632357
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.008121687201091948
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01730990956515092
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.013862985307240113
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.014245449325931834
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.001171164136820474
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.023738299676804478
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10871453679954671
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.054756087332503145
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03253928321908718
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10362958915474926

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.