FROZEN PREDICTION

California vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 2.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.5812 · 80% margin interval -14.0 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.05109036533767609
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.04387693166300037
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.03292878082520792
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.09248723201188519
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.01659229634527907
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.006735389047673167
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.010430399442679605
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.002681324517479297
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.016872845499163375
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.008105102072481196
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.027895088329906434
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.04135506637856165
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.05732079366724473
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.06429002496616165
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.06461803728295894
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.04441268106632112

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.