FROZEN PREDICTION

Northwestern vs Ohio State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio State by 6.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6832 · 80% margin interval -10.5 to 22.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.06666498081607783
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.024268192270319247
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	-0.000017469350193319863
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.07440642228231406
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.05578124934369282
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	-0.022489639405576113
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.007410006847608682
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.015284242405194522
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.01728821584544772
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.013810085866923047
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.1303734304566923
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.0060032600906436
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.13514915851566797
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.014002543586497915
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.014985065671507189
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.021587254675872386

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.