FROZEN PREDICTION

Michigan vs Oregon

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 8.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactNeutral effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.7421 · 80% margin interval -8.2 to 25.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.14343836552351835
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.008119092468632003
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.014985869598269355
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.04883255011893337
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.19145381851749055
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.0
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02266300304617356
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.00438825025968817
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.004750798335627231
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.001981096303454395
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.09804016445967316
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.03336974126595267
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.06842014365731552
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.20865643913012605
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04694531133517393
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.