FROZEN PREDICTION

Minnesota vs Penn State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Penn State by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.5349 · 80% margin interval -15.5 to 17.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.07452285851372534
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.029544901705324377
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.09348463076425115
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.037926152746487
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.01213053833308297
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01872693116114729
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01622475257207135
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.007657336048637725
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.029750901052616418
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.025153053840401462
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.15369978848026758
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.02556432272886637
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03584184922259937
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.02255839691954805
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.040674104023858945
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10362958915474929

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.