FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6266 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14558898521162672	0.0493032592102373
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05459586945436003	-0.051798188007681344
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03639724630290668	0.00047499995049455436
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.09099311575726671	-0.05770033916930026
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.09099311575726671	0.12218534084281613
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	-0.004618970430417036
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.014629937204605528
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.004219787439707667
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.011706676817251798
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.00048740719158613284
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10919173890872005	0.0019037457687086229
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07279449260581336	0.02542887372225717
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05459586945436003	-0.00283260206959653
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10919173890872005	-0.11460263604386482
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05459586945436003	0.1304807153887005
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14558898521162672	0.15196578621687593

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.