FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas vs West Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

West Virginia by 3.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6124 · 80% margin interval -12.9 to 20.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.025771347058678857
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.01694119010827606
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.06290052002174662
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.15892390497380263
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.07998263495738665
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	-0.01314407456802415
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.007829929035671085
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.0037742558475522495
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.005167743500549833
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.005747870599876614
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.16675536135515823
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.05295197278011103
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.06316740732832461
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.026668410047861843
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.04844540720102507
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.14804227022107044

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.