FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas State vs TCU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

TCU by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.5619 · 80% margin interval -14.6 to 18.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.01727586916976409
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.04439108969267743
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.001802175937510836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.06550971621045619
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.08502942068974802
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.008517420987034816
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.006760252496834631
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.011222827538410765
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.030557255917180594
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.010479995434631642
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.10189845410250445
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.03990420806265066
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0015912853996758944
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.08823557773559776
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.015834284005999674
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.16173752605533964

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.