FROZEN PREDICTION

Nevada vs Northern Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nevada by 0.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.4841 · 80% margin interval -17.2 to 16.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.16167756334501793
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.08931001715495197
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.041430892881602586
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.06562833123762978
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.014595990463835393
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0017365908264442044
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.006723806716642845
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.00638631907412185
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0033456665054039866
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.12346804268402499
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.2902081932535329
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.09389062267034787
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.13954195223274066

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.